Kurzweil 2009 Prediction #6: Classrooms

"Although traditional classroom organization is still common, intelligent courseware has emerged as a common means of learning."

Mostly right. Traditional classroom organization is probably a little more than common, but it is certainly true that much of our childrens' education now involves learning through computer software. This occurs not only in classrooms, but in homes and in tutoring. Increasingly, due to new devices (like the iPad) and wireless availability, niche learning applications can be taken anywhere by children.

We'll give this one to Kurzweil

Kurzweil 2009 Prediction #5: Business Transactions

"Most routine business transactions (purchase, travel, reservations) take place between a human and a virtual personality. Often, the virtual personality includes an animated visual presence that looks like a human face."

On this one, he got it wrong. While it is true that most routine business transactions take place between a human and a computer, I think it would be an exaggeration to say that it involves a "virtual personality". And, certainly there are few that include a visual presence that looks like a human face.

Once again, Kurzweil seems to have missed. . . and missed big on this prediction.

Kurzweil 2009 Prediction #4: Speech Recognition

"The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition. Also ubiquitous are language user interfaces (LUIs)."

On prediction #4, I think we have to say Kurzweil missed. While voice recognition software is certainly improving (we have pretty good verbal Google searches, decent verbal customer service, and even decent text to speech on PCs), but it would certainly be wrong to say "the majority of text" involves speech recognition. We also certainly do not have anything near "ubiquitous" user interfaces for verbal language. In fact, while they also exist, they are still pretty cumbersome and not nearly universal in their use.

Kurzweil missed this one and I find his miss instructive. He knows perhaps more about this space than most because of his background in building aid devices for people who are blind and deaf. However, it is perhaps his closeness to the subject that caused him to miss this one so clearly.

Kurzweil 2009 Prediction #3: Cables disappear

"Cables are disappearing. Communication between components uses short-distance wireless technology. High-speed wireless communication provides access to the Web."

Score #3 for Kurzweil. I'm typing now on a Mac wireless keyboard and I've used high speed wireless technology several times today.

So far, Kurzweil is doing very well.

Kurzweil Prediction #2: Variety of PCs

"Personal computers with high-resolution visual displays come in a range of sizes, from those small enough to be embedded in clothing and jewelry up to the size of a thin book."

On this prediction, Kurzweil also has scored a success. We have all kinds of small devices like phones that are indeed small enough to be embedded in clothing (although that is still rare). We also see devices that are alot like jewelry (headsets).

We'll give this one to Kurzweil too.

Kurzweil 2009 Prediction #1: Computer Performance

"A $1000 personal computer can perform about a trillion calculations per second."

On this prediction, Kurzweil seems to have been largely correct. Its hard to find precise statistics for this particular measure, but here, Kurzweil is simply reformulating Moore's law which still shows no signs of abating. In other words, the processors really to get cheaper and fast VERY fast . . . and pretty much on schedule.

We'll give this prediction to Kurzweil.

Kurzweil prediction review

For some reason, Ray Kurzweil and his predictions about the future have been coming up frequently in conversation lately (yes . . . I have nerdy friends.) In fact, I had a debate with a friend about his predictions last night over dinner while the rest of the table talked about something else (no doubt MUCH less interesting.)

I thought it might be enlightening to conduct a review of his primary predictions from his book "The Age of Spiritual Machines." In it, he explores the trends in technology and makes some pretty startling recommendations about what will happen as technology innovation continues. He talks about how the difference between humans and machines will blur, how lifespans will expand greatly and how virtual reality may evolve to be the primary reality.

And, along the way, he makes convenient predictions for some key years . . . including 2009. In this blog series, I'll look at each of his 2009 predictions (made originally 10 years ago in 1999) to see how well his ideas are holding up.

Pascal #4

From Jim Smelley

A recent survey by Goldman Sachs shows a return to overall capital investment in IT spending. However, the spending growth is pretty mild (4%) compared with an 8% reduction of spending in 2009.

Of course, the big question is are we trending up or is this just a blip. The market messages are certainly mixed, although many tech companies have reported better than expected profits, so far those have mostly been in the hardware sector.

Lost in translation

I was recently in a class with a very knowledgeable instructor. He was expertly lecturing on the topic at hand when he made a mistake. He had been teaching this same class for over 15 years from notes he'd taken in college, where he'd made the original mistake. In other words, for 15 years, with countless of people taking this class, his transcription error has been replicated. There are many people who've taken the class who learned the wrong information.

But not us. Someone in the room had a hunch that he said something wrong and (two iPads, two iPhones and a smattering of google.com later) the students corrected the original mistake. The students in this room, armed with technology, were able to do something that significantly improved the quality of the information being conveyed.

One of our major forms of cultural transfer--word of mouth--has long been fraught with mistakes and changes over time. It was easy to be wrong and to stay wrong for years, decades or even generations. But with the new availability of mobile devices and the applications that run on them, today's students can easily look up and correct mistakes made in instruction. I often hear complaints about how the next generation is likely to be ruined by technology (every generation thinks the generation behind them is ruined by something). Isn't it just possible . . . isn't it even probable that these new technologies are making them better informed and better educated?